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Forum Report
Over 100 participants attended the 7th EU Hitachi Science &
Technology Forum held in Stockholm,Sweden from 14th -16th May 2004, where
they discussed the theme Transportation and IT,Impact on European
Society. As usual, the gathering attracted a diverse range of scientists,
engineers,executives, policy-makers and others. Dr.Spyros Konidaris, of DG
Information Society,European Commission, served as Forum General
Moderator, drawing linkages between the presentations and encouraging
participants to engage in a constructive analysis of the issues. Opening the Forum, Mr. Hiroaki Nakanishi, Senior Vice President, Hitachi, Ltd. and Chief Executive for Europe, reiterated that the Forum was based on Hitachi's principle of commitment to society. Participants would find it a different experience as it is a meeting designed to encourage participants to reflect on issues facing European society and in so doing contribute to the wider policy debate. Transport is an important issue worldwide, and is also a key focus for Hitachi's own research and development (R&D) activities. Mr. Nakanishi thanked the Swedish National Road Administration for the afternoon's visit to the Stockholm Traffic Control Centre, which had provided the opportunity to see state-of-the-art applications of information technology in the city's road traffic management. Stockholm is widely acknowledged as a leader in transportation and there could be no better place to discuss transport issues. Per Eriksson, Director-General of VINNOVA, the Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems, welcomed the Forum on behalf of the Swedish hosts. We are all travelling more, Mr. Eriksson said, and hence making greater demands on transport infrastructure and on our environment. He was impressed by the commitment of Japanese companies to building their societies as well as their businesses. Europe had much to learn from this model. Sweden is relatively strong in R&D, explained Mr. Eriksson, committing around 4% of GDP. VINNOVA has a special interest in the topic of the Forum, since around 30% of its research relates to transport and a further 30% to information and communication technologies (ICT). Interaction is a key issue in the knowledge economy, and VINNOVA places special emphasis on encouraging the Triple Helix interactions between policy-makers, research institutes and industry. The Agency is mission-oriented and works closely with the Swedish car industry on various programmes related to intelligent transport systems (ITS).
Prof. Phil Goodwin delivered the Forum's keynote speech. Launching his presentation, Prof. Goodwin said the title should perhaps be phrased in another way: Can technology provide extra effective transport capacity to allow us to travel more, at higher speeds, safely? His proposition was that the way in which advanced information technology (IT) will impact on transport is radically different from what was expected, because of fundamental changes, still to be completed, in the policy context. There is a strong relationship between growth in incomes and growth in car-based mobility, but it is no longer feasible to seek to provide enough road capacity fully to keep pace with unrestricted traffic growth. Therefore on current trends, congestion will increase, in intensity, duration and geographical spread. The supply of road space will not be matched to the demand, so demand management will provide the key policy context. One can imagine, Prof. Goodwin continued, a dream role for IT which would use real-time information allowing exact tracking of traffic movements and congestion hot-spots, real-time (fast) external feedback and traffic control systems, and real-time (very fast) in-vehicle detection and automatic collision avoidance. The intended outcome of these technologies would be to maximise traffic flow, and increase safety without the need to reduce speed or compromise freedom of movement and action. But any system continually operating close to its maximum capacity, and subject to random variation, is inherently unstable, Prof. Goodwin contended. The predict and provide approach leads to a vicious circle of self-fulling predictions. It is no longer feasible if it ever was to match road capacity to unrestricted traffic growth. If we cannot manage supply, we have to find better ways to manage demand. Prof. Goodwin cited many examples where demand management had been applied successfully, one being the London congestion charge. The technology will evolve in new directions because of this new demand-led policy agenda. As a result there will be an unintended and unexpected market dynamic in which technologies introduced for one purpose will evolve a different function. For instance, vehicle-centred, two-way communication set to provide information to drivers about traffic conditions, route advice etc., is likely to evolve into a platform for implementing road-user charging. Vehicle crash avoidance systems set up to enable drivers to travel faster, with closer headways, will evolve into use for automatic traffic calming (i.e. instead of speed-humps in home zones). Real-time urban traffic control using integrated traffic signals to maximise traffic throughput, augmented by vehicle detection to distinguish buses, lorries, cyclists etc., will be used to reallocate capacity away from maximum flow, so as to enhance selective vehicle priority measures. In conclusion, Prof. Goodwin noted that the way technology is applied to transport depends on the wider policy context, which is changing fundamentally for reasons of economic efficiency, environmental protection, and quality of life. The dream technology for capacity and speed is mistaken. It will be replaced by technology for management and quality.
Mr. Fukunaga explained that intelligent transportation systems (ITS) represents the convergence of two extremely important lines of Hitachi technology - transportation systems and information technology. He illustrated this by numerous examples. In the area of propulsion systems, Hitachi is applying simulation technology developed for the nuclear and gas turbine industries to model combustion processes and improve fuel efficiency of automotive engines. The company is also developing advanced motors and motor control technologies for both cars and railways and is actively involved in advanced battery technologies. A further area is control network systems, where Hitachi's advanced
"x-by-wire" technology is being applied into the next generation of trains
and cars.
Dr. Gielen's presentation set the scene for the morning discussion, providing an overview of the transportation sector and its key policy challenges. His presentation provided a wealth of quantitative data together with some qualitative ideas on the future impact of information systems within the transport sector. Over the last decade, passenger transport in Europe (EU15) has been growing at the same rate as GDP, while freight transport has been growing much faster than GDP. Around 82% of European passenger transportation is accounted for by road vehicles and the use of passenger cars has more than doubled in the last thirty years; only passenger air transportation has shown stronger growth. Truck freight transport and short distance sea shipping has almost tripled over the last thirty years, while other transport modes have remained constant. The switch to home deliveries, the relative decline of transportation costs, and the increasing value of goods transported are all factors that contribute to the rapid growth of road freight transportation. These trends clearly indicate that road transport is the key transport issue. Transport is also important from an economics perspective. Overall, it accounts for around 20% of GDP and has implications in terms of the economic activity in vehicle manufacturing, investment in transport infrastructure, costs of vehicle fuels, and fuel taxation. Overall, figures suggest the costs for society considerably outweigh the benefits. Internalising these costs, to take account of factors such as congestion, environmental damage, remains a key policy challenge. Turning to the future, Dr. Gielen noted that growth in transportation
will be much higher at a global level than in Europe. Recent work by the
IEA projects worldwide growth of 150% in passenger transport and 200% in
freight transport by 2050, versus projections for Europe of 50% and 125%
respectively. Energy use in the transportation sector will grow by 130%
globally and by 30% in Europe. There will be no conventional fuel switch,
Dr. Gielen argued, and as conventional oil reserves decline dependency on
OPEC will increase significantly. Pollution emissions such as NOx and
particulate matter decline dramatically due to better engines, better
fuels and end-of-pipe technology, but CO2 emissions increase in line with
energy use. The number of deaths from road accidents keeps increasing, as
safety measures are offset by increased transportation activity.
Road accidents remain a major concern, accounting for 127,000 deaths a year in Europe alone and a further 2.4 million are injured. Dr. Herrtwich's presentation focused on the shift in vehicle safety research from passive to active safety systems. In the automotive sector, most innovations are now IT related: some analysts put the figure as high as 70% over the last 20 years. Onboard safety systems has been a major area of development. In the current generation, software systems evaluate sensor input about the vehicle environment and provide warning information to the driver or take over vehicle functions in an emergency. So far, the sensors used are largely based on radar or vision and cover the immediate vehicle surroundings well. The next step is to look "further ahead" on the road to inform drivers
sooner about potential hazards. Map and communication technologies will be
key building blocks here and will find their way into advanced driver
assistance systems. Maps and communication are just two sides of the same
coin, Dr. Herrtwich said, since all relevant information in the telematics
horizon is location-based. How quickly information changes determines how
it should be communicated into the vehicle. Hence, one major trend in
active vehicle safety is to augment onboard systems with offboard
information. Dedicated short range communication (DSRC), a variation of
the IEEE 802.11 wireless LAN standard, is the leading contender for the
communication technology, both vehicle-to-vehicle and
infrastructure-to-vehicle. There are many potential applications. For
instance, vehicles in a traffic jam could communicate information about a
hazard back to other vehicles so that it reaches upcoming vehicles faster.
Emergency vehicles could send out a warning message to warn other road
users in the vicinity. And traffic lights could communicate with vehicles
by sending out information on their timing and phase to prevent red light
violations and potential accidents.
The starting point for Mr. Biding's presentation was Vision Zero, a Swedish initiative which envisages that no-one should be killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents. It forms the basis for road traffic safety initiatives in Sweden and has resulted in changes in road safety policy and methods of working with road safety issues. The spirit of Vision Zero is that roads, streets and vehicles are increasingly adapted to the limitations of human beings and that the responsibility for safety is shared between the designers and users of the road transport system. Offering road users information on how the system can be improved provides individuals with an opportunity to choose the safest alternatives. Improved consumer information about safe traffic solutions increases consumer pressure on the market and speeds up developments in the field. Cars, roads and traffic systems are still largely designed
independently of each other. This must change, Mr. Biding argued. It not,
it will become necessary to drastically reduce speed limits to ensure road
safety. For higher speeds to be maintained, the traffic environment must
be adapted to the levels of crash protection afforded by current vehicle
technology. It is possible to maintain current speed levels and reduce the
link between speed and traffic fatalities. The greatest opportunity to
achieve this lies in improving and combining the safety characteristics of
both the road environment and vehicles. Concluding, Mr. Biding stressed again that the design of the road transport system must be based on human limitations; it must accommodate mistakes and misjudgements. The interface between the driver, the vehicle and the road must be improved. Co-operation between the car industry and road authorities is needed to develop effective, integrated solutions. To help achieve this, the Swedish authorities are working with industrial partners in Intelligent Vehicle Safety Systems (IVSS), a new US$80 programme focusing on emerging technologies and applications. The programme will lay the foundation for, and help introduce, new safety solutions within vehicle and roadside systems.
Mr. Maghiros began by observing that security was becoming a much more
significant issue in a transport context. People are travelling more while
international trade too is increasing. With enlargement, the EU is
expanding its border but also has to police "internal borders" such as
airports and container ports. Security impacts the cost/efficiency of
transport systems and inevitably there is a trade-off between the two. We
need to change our approach to security, so as to be pro-active rather
than reactive. At the same time, we have to ensure any measures taken are
proportionate to the risks involved. Summarising, Mr. Maghiros reiterated that enhancing the security of transportation systems is mandatory in the current climate, since the cost of doing nothing may become huge. The cost/efficiency of new security technology solutions still needs to be proven and privacy protection needs to be addressed. Some security measures lead to productivity enhancements that are beneficial for the overall system - faster if safer. Extensive collaboration between all actors, rich information sharing and procedural and physical security are key elements in the chain. However, there should be a balance between centralisation and fragmentation. We need to design systems so as to facilitate their "fail safe" capacity, and thus include disaster recovery plans as an integral part of the design. Finally, we need to define measures that limit or contain the consequences of disasters; here the insurance industry could help design and implement them.
Mr. Linde's presentation focused on a number of areas where
the use of location data is currently hotly disputed. The presentation
explored the advantages and disadvantages of each of the upcoming new
technologies for society and briefly examined the current and likely
future regulatory framework for these applications. A second area is what Mr. Linde described as the transparent customer. This relates to the use of RFID in situations such as supermarkets, airports and border crossings, and information gathered through customer loyalty schemes. Such technologies offer speed and convenience. But again is this at the expense of giving away too much personal data, Mr. Linde asked? The third scenario was Big Brother: surveillance and the use of location data for investigation purposes. The general acceptance of surveillance in the movement of people and goods is worrying, Mr. Linde claimed. In most EU countries there are practically no restrictions on how such data can be collected (e.g. through public CCTV systems), although eavesdropping and access to location data is generally restricted. As so often, the legal framework lags behind the technology. The key issue is storage rather than access, said Mr. Linde. Defining whether certain data should be stored in the first place takes us a good way towards a policy of acceptable use.
Opening his presentation, Prof. Bng noted that politicians generally
see the development and implementation of ITS as a means to reduce the
need to invest in expensive new road network infrastructure. Today, a
rapid technological development of ITS is taking place with governments,
automotive and IT industries and telecom service providers as the main
actors. Prof. Bng then detailed the use of ITS for road traffic management, focusing on the need for RTM, RTM system architecture and current RTM applications. Current applications include incident detection and management systems, control andwarning systems for roads and interchanges, and network control and information. Participants had had the opportunity to see much of this in action the previous day during their visit to the Stockholm Traffic Management Centre, which Prof. Bng had organised. At present most ITS applications that have reached a high market
penetration focus on providing information to the drivers, enabling them
to drive in a safer and more efficient manner. The impact of such systems
on efficiency and safety is difficult to evaluate in spite of major
research efforts. In future, we might see more systems that relieve the
drivers of the driving task. The ultimate solution would be fully
automated vehicles operating on reserved carriageways. This opens the
possibility to electronically link cars closely together like wagons in a
train, with obvious potential for major capacity increases and safety
benefits. Concluding, Prof. Bng emphasised that the realisation of the
full potential of ITS for road traffic management requires action at many
levels.
Presenting on behalf of the joint authors, Mr.Gauthier explained that
France has invested heavilyin its urban public transport systems over the
last 30 years and developed a dynamic national policy. This has led to two
very different situations. On the one hand, the Paris Ile-de-France
region, the largest urban area in France, has a very dense but ancient
network, with a powerful institutional organisation and integrated fares
policy. Overall the quality of service is quite poor in the capital
region. In most of the other urban areas, recent and modern networks have
been developed, with good quality of service but as yet the level of
network integration is poor.
Mr. Biding gave a short introduction to the discussion within Working Group I and Dr. Anthony Morton-Blake presented its conclusions. The group had received two presentations on Hitachi's recent work in this field from Mr. Yoshiyuki Sasada and Mr. Yoichi Sugita. The group welcomed the latest safety innovations but asked how easy it would be to implement them? There appeared to be a dichotomy of interest here. On the one hand, there is the safety authority (usually government) which has to legislate on safety. On the other hand, the car manufacturer has responsibility for implementing the technologies. But they also have to satisfy their customers and safety features tend to be low in the list of customers' concerns. So it comes down to who pays for the new features. The group had a number of suggestions for improving public consciousness of safety issues. Governments should legislate for safety measures and over-ride commercial concerns. We should make full use of technology to enable us to drive at safe distances and warn us of hazards. Differential road tolls could be considered so as to encourage more freight to be transported by rail. Governments could offer tax discounts to cars fitted with specified safety devices; similarly with insurance companies. Finally, we need a strongeducation message: motorists who fail to fit safety devices should be castigated and made "social outcasts", in the way drunk drivers have been.
To launch the debate, the group had heard a presentation from Dr. Ryo Imura of Hitachi's Mu- Solutions Division, on the latest developments in the field. Mr. Niek Ijzinga acted as rapporteur. The group agreed that recent events together with technological developments had put a firm focus on security. The EU is reshaping its borders and the cost and efficiency of security measures is influencing people's mobility and hence economic prosperity. Emerging identification technologies are at the centre of the debate, in particular in relation to privacy. Radio frequency identification devices (RFID) as developed by Hitachi
- are a promising development here. This technology has many potential
applications in transport. For example it could be used to identify and
track containers and their contents. Biometrics is another promising area.
Turning to societal factors, the group stressed the importance of trust
in human behaviour. Laws can go some way towards providing this but trust
also has to be built into the technologies themselves. For instance, any
data collected on passengers ought to be destroyed after the journey,
rather than stored for some undefined purpose, and consumers need to know
this will be the case.
To set the scene, the group heard a presentation by Dr. Takayoshi
Yokota of Hitachi Research Laboratory on recent developments in
intelligent transport systems (e.g. real time traffic information, toll
systems, safety assistance systems, and traffic control systems). Mr.
Amaury Catlin acted as rapporteur.
Closing the three-day meeting, Dr. Nakamura said the Forum had provided
stimulating and thoughtful discussion. Participants had addressed a
diverse range of issues and had debated them at some depth.
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